peoplepill id: joe-manchik
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A special election for Ohio's 12th congressional district was held August 7, 2018, following the resignation of Republican U.S. Representative Pat Tiberi. The Republican Party nominated State Senator Troy Balderson for the seat while the Democratic Party nominated Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor. Balderson led O'Connor in preliminary results; however, the race was not officially called on election night. Counting of outstanding ballots began on August 18 and was completed on August 24. The outstanding ballots did not change the margin enough to trigger an automatic recount, so Balderson was declared the winner on August 24.
Background
On October 19, 2017, nine-term incumbent Republican Representative Pat Tiberi announced that he would leave office before January 31, 2018, in order to lead the Ohio Business Roundtable. On January 3, 2018, he announced that he would officially resign January 15. On January 5, Ohio Governor John Kasich set the primaries for the special election for May 8, and the general election for August 7. The winner of this special election would serve for five months until January 2019, unless also elected in the regularly scheduled November general election.
Ohio's 12th congressional district is located in the central portion of the state and includes Delaware, Licking, and Morrow counties with the addition of portions of Franklin, Marion, Muskingum, and Richland counties. The district has been in Republican hands for all but one term since 1939, and without interruption since 1983.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Troy Balderson, state senator
Eliminated in primary
- John Adams, perennial candidate
- Kevin Bacon, state senator
- Lawrence Cohen, accountant
- Brandon Grisez, veteran
- Jon Halverstadt, real estate investor
- Tim Kane, economist, former air force intelligence officer
- Melanie Leneghan, Liberty Township Trustee
- Pat Manley, architect
- Carol O'Brien, Delaware County Prosecutor
Declined
- Andrew Brenner, state representative (running for state senate)
- Anne Gonzales, state representative (running for state senate)
- John Kasich, Governor and former U.S. Representative
- Clarence Mingo, Franklin County Auditor (endorsed Kevin Bacon)
- J. D. Vance, author and venture capitalist
Endorsements
| Kevin Bacon |
|---|
|
| Tim Kane |
|---|
|
| Melanie Leneghan |
|---|
|
| Carol O'Brien |
|---|
|
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Adams | Kevin Bacon | Troy Balderson | Gary Chiero | Lawrence Cohen | Jonathan Halverstadt | Tim Kane | Melanie Leneghan | Pat Manley | Carol O'Brien | Mick Shoemaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R-Balderson) | April 15–16, 2018 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 0% | 10% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 10% | 11% | 1% | 7% | 1% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Troy Balderson | 20,101 | 29.22 | |
| Republican | Melanie Leneghan | 19,437 | 28.25 | |
| Republican | Tim Kane | 11,743 | 17.07 | |
| Republican | Kevin Bacon | 9,819 | 14.27 | |
| Republican | Carol O'Brien | 4,406 | 6.40 | |
| Republican | Jon Halverstadt | 998 | 1.45 | |
| Republican | Lawrence Cohen | 807 | 1.17 | |
| Republican | Mick Shoemaker | 750 | 1.09 | |
| Republican | Pat Manley | 741 | 1.08 | |
| Total votes | 68,802 | 100 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Danny O'Connor, Franklin County Recorder
Eliminated in primary
- Ed Albertson, businessman and nominee for OH-12 in 2016
- Jackie Patton, nurse
- John Peters, special education teacher
- John Russell, farmer and nominee for State Representative in 2016
- Zach Scott, former Franklin County Sheriff
- Doug Wilson, health care professional
Withdrew
- Crystal Lett, healthcare advocate
Declined
- Jeremy Blake, Newark city councilman (running for state representative)
- Jay Goyal, former state representative and small business owner
Endorsements
| John Russell |
|---|
|
| Zach Scott |
|---|
|
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Danny O'Connor | 18,422 | 40.94 | |
| Democratic | Zach Scott | 7,554 | 16.76 | |
| Democratic | John Russell | 7,515 | 16.70 | |
| Democratic | Jackie Patton | 6,111 | 13.58 | |
| Democratic | Ed Albertson | 3,638 | 8.08 | |
| Democratic | Doug Wilson | 1,771 | 3.94 | |
| Total votes | 45,011 | 100.0 | ||
Independents
Candidates
Withdrawn
- Jonathan Veley, attorney
General election
Candidates
- Troy Balderson (Republican), state senator
- Joe Manchik (Green), small business owner
- Danny O'Connor (Democratic),Franklin County Recorder
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | April 27, 2018 |
| Inside Elections/Rothenberg Political Report | Tilt R | May 4, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Tossup | July 24, 2018 |
Endorsements
| Troy Balderson (R) |
|---|
|
| Danny O'Connor (D) |
|---|
|
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Troy Balderson (R) | Danny O'Connor (D) | Joe Manchik (G) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | August 2–4, 2018 | 431 | ± 5.0% | 46% | 47% | – | – | 7% |
| Monmouth University | July 26–31, 2018 | 512 | ± 4.3% | 44% | 43% | 2% | 0% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United) | July 27–29, 2018 | 617 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 44% | – | – | – |
| GBA Strategies (D-O'Connor) | July 23–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 48% | 45% | 2% | – | – |
| GBA Strategies (D-O'Connor) | July 10–13, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 43% | 5% | – | – |
| JMC Analytics | June 13–16, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 35% | 1% | – | 18% |
| GBA Strategies (D-O'Connor) | June 9–12, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 48% | 41% | 4% | – | – |
| Monmouth University | June 7–10, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 43% | 33% | 1% | 2% | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United) | May 10–11, 2018 | 625 | ± 3.9% | 45% | 43% | – | – | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Generic Republican | Generic Democrat | Undecided | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Generic Republican | Generic Democrat | Undecided | ||||||||
| GBA Strategies (D-O'Connor) | July 23–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 46% | – | ||||||||
| GBA Strategies (D-O'Connor) | July 23–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 46% | – |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Troy Balderson | 104,328 | 50.12% | -16.43% | |
| Democratic | Danny O'Connor | 102,648 | 49.32% | +19.48% | |
| Green | Joe Manchik | 1,165 | 0.56% | -3.01% | |
| Total votes | 208,141 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
O'Connor dominated the district's portion of Franklin County, home to the largest share of the district's population. However, he could not overcome a 4,800-vote deficit in normally heavily Republican Delaware County, the largest whole county in the district. Still, this was easily the closest that a Democrat had come to winning the district since 1982.
County results
| Troy Balderson Republican | Danny O'Connor Democrat | Joe Manchik Green | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Delaware | 32,576 | 53.97% | 27,548 | 45.64% | 240 | 0.40% | 60,364 |
| Franklin | 25,209 | 34.45% | 47,639 | 65.10% | 328 | 0.45% | 73,176 |
| Licking | 24,340 | 60.72% | 15,443 | 38.52% | 304 | 0.76% | 40,087 |
| Marion | 1,236 | 68.33% | 560 | 30.96% | 13 | 0.72% | 1,809 |
| Morrow | 5,225 | 69.99% | 2,173 | 29.11% | 67 | 0.90% | 7,465 |
| Muskingum | 7,928 | 66.43% | 3,902 | 32.69% | 105 | 0.88% | 11,935 |
| Richland | 7,814 | 58.73% | 5,383 | 40.46% | 108 | 0.81% | 13,305 |
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