Gafurov (Gafourov), Said Zakirovich (born 1967) is a Russian economist, orientalist, politician, bureaucrat and opera critic. A Gorky Tatar (Mişär or Misher) by origin, he graduated in 1992 from the College of Asian and African studies at the Moscow State University, Candidate of Science (econ.), Counselor of the Russian Federation. He is the author of a number of monographs and articles. He is a son of Professor Gafurov Zakerya Shagizanovich – colonel, professional revolutionary, creator of the theory of construction of revolutionary armies in developing countries and Gafurova (Khusainova) Anisa Sofovna – a professional artist, secretary of the Moscow Union of Artists. Gafurov is married to Darya Mitina – a prominent Russian Communist leader, co-chairperson of the Left Front (Russia), 1st Secretary of Russian Komsomol, former member of State Duma. He has 2 sons.
Under the Yevgeniy Primakov government, Gafurov served at a position of the Director of Department of State property of Finance, Credit, Insurance and Foreign Trade organizations of the Ministry of State Property of Russia. Later on he served as a Counselor for Russian Inter-budget relations in the Ministry of Regional Development of the Russian Federation.
Since 2011 Gafurov worked as a Deputy Chief Editor (responsible for economic issues) of the Russian monthly journal "VVP" ("Gross Domestic Product") known for active support of Vladimir Putin. Under his guidenance "VVP" has changed to be one of the most significant bastions of champions of neo-Keynesian and Marxist anti-neo-liberal economic policy in Russia regardless of pro-liberal policy of Putin's Administration.
Under orders of different Russian Economic Ministries, Gafurov wrote several monographs on Russian foreign economic relations: "The WTO mechanisms and non-discriminatory operations of Russian oil and gas companies in the European Energy markets" M. 2014; "The initiative "Partnership for Modernization" and the Russian national interests" M. 2013; "The Intergovernmental Commissions and the modernization of the Russian economy (doc)" M.2011, etc.
Based on expireince of the criseses of 1998-1999 (Gafurov then was in the Government), 2008-2009 and 2014 - nowdays, Gafurov elaborated a concept of Mismatch ("Рассогласование") or Disbalance ("Разбалансировка") of Credit-Monetary and Fiscal-Budget as the main reason of inefficiency of anti-crisis policy. Both the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance rejected the conclusions of Gafurov based on absence of such mismatch. However, many meaningful points of the Gafurov concept reamined unanswered.
Political economy, Theory of Property
Gafurov is an author of an empiric research monography "Essay on Experience of Comparative Analysis of Privatization and Formation of Corporate Securities Markets in Developing and Post-socialist Countries in 1991—1996" (Moscow State University. "Dialog", Moscow, 2000) and a few works on theory and practice of political economy of property.
Since 2013 Gafurov started his activity in the field of reorganisation of international political-economic network guided by Prof. Alexander Buzgalin. Gafurov regularly spoke on the international political-economic Congresses stressing high-scale social demand for political-economic research from the State and business.
In his Anti-crisis Policy concept Gafurov followed the Keynesean approach. He creates a new model of interrelations between the Credit-Monetary and Fiscal-Budget (and Anti-Monopoly) policies based on institutional differences between the governmentsl bodies.
In late 90s Gafurov in several articles in Russian journal "Rynok cennyh bumag" ("Securities market") elaborated an original approach to Equity research based on mathematical concept of Ergodic theory. The so-called "Gafurov theorem" states that statistical methods can be used in Equity research if only the time series of securities prices are subject to Ergodicity principles. The practical significance of the Theorem is in the first Сorollary of the Theorem (Gafurov calls it "Lemma") based on the Bayesian approach. When forecasting the market on the basis of the experience gained, the forecast error increases in accordance with the size of the (future, not yet known) changes of the market. This means that during the time of crisises decisions could not be taken on the basis of the forecasted level of market decline, as it is unpredictable in principle. Decisions on entry and exit from the market should be taken not on the basis of forecasts, but based on other principles of portfolio management. The compedium of Gafurov's ideas on Equity research and Securities Analysis was published in the monograph (based on Seria of articles) "The philiosophy of Equity research".
Gafurov is an author of a short article on philosophical ideas of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, translated to some European, Arabic and African languages. The most interesting point is that Gafurov proves that ideas of Gaddafi are similar to those of anarchists. It was kind of a scandal during the war!
In addition, he is an author of a number of works on economy, privatization and development of economies, privatization and securities markets of the Arabic, Asiatic and African countries.
Gafurov also works on the problems of Islamic sects: ismailism, druzes, and alawisms. He, in particular, supposed that all distinctions between flows in Islam (sunnizm and different directions of shiizm) were actually taken to the questions of implementation of law, but not dogmatic or personal reasons, because in an order to be a Muslim it is necessary and enough to make public acceptance of credo of faith, consisting only of two propositions: (1) that there is only one god (taukhid) and (2) that Muhammed is one of his prophets.
He supposed that registration of separate flow is a problem of codification and creation of a separate, independent "mazkhab" a legal school and norms of laws, distinguishing this flow from other directions in Islam.
Gafurov defended memory of Al-Hakim bi-Amr Allah – an assassinated Fatimid caliph who was later claimed insane by ismailities, Christians and sunnites and deified by the druzes as well as defence of Syrian and Turkish alawites.
Marxist studies and Political Philosophy
Gafurov is a known Russian Marxist thinker though his Marxist works are of little importance. He belongs to school of prominent Russian Marxist thinker Alexander Buzgalin, and prof. Buzgalin was a supervisor of his Ph.D. thesis. Nevertheless, Gafurov's ideas are close to Marxist positivism and he moved far away from dialectical metaphysics of Buzgalin. Gafurov rejects concepts of Asiatic mode of production and State capitalism nature of the Soviet Union (based on analysis of role of credit relations in the USSR and State Capitalist countries). In practical politics he defends an awkward idea of reconciliation of Stalinist, Trotskist and Maoist tendencies based on a wrong idea that the differences have only historical significance. Anyhow nobody listens to Gafurov.
He champions the Quantitative theory of Imperialism which means that any stronger imperialism is worse than any weaker. That certainly contradicts to the Leninist defeatist position. In practical meaning Gafurov's position allows tactical alliances with weaker imperialism like Russian or Iranian imperialism. Gafurov rejects existance of Chinese imperialism though his position on it is also controversial since he supports Vietnam in conflict on the Paracel islands and supports China in all other conflicts in the South China Sea.
Since 2011 Gafurov has actively supported Syian government in Russian media including Russian media in foreign languages. Gafurov has been a Deputy Chairman of the Russian Committee for Solidarity with peoples of Libya and Syria since its foundation. In addition Gafurov defended the Syrian government during the uprising in Deraa pointing that it was a struggle for arable land between druzes and bedouins.
In 2011 during the popular uprising in Libya Gafurov became one of the most prominent ideologists of pro-Gaddafi forces in Russia, though Gafurov himself pointed out that he did not take sides:
"Any barricade has only two sides. And if there are your enemies on both it simply means that this is not your barricade".
However, in practice Gafurov's articles defended Kaddasfi's side based on
1. Gafurov's thesis that the uprisal is a tribal reaction to Gaddafi's attempts to modernise Libya 2. That the insurgents were led by former Minister of Justice in the Gaddafi's government. 3. Economic interests of Russian oil and gas sector.
Gafourov's article that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was cheated by US vice-president Biden who promised to send US Minister of Defense Gates to Russia before implementation of the UN Revolution 1973 caused a main scandal in the Russian political circles and was widely distributed especially when it was followed by public exchange of opinions between Russian President Medvedev and Prime-Minister Putin.
Gafurov disapproves NATO, neo-colonialism and neo-racism and is sharply critical against current EU policy in Africa. Gafurov supported Cote d Ivoirite President Loraint Gbagbo against another Cote d Ivoirite President Allasaint Wattara.
Gafurov is one of known leaders of the Russian Social Forum movements.
Gafurov participated in writing of program documents of the Russian Movement in defence of Labour (which was sharply criticised for its position in support of Putin in his struggle against restoration of neo-liberalism).
In February 2014 Gafurov declared 3 principles of Ukrainian settlement 1) Down with fascist self-proclaimed government in Kiev and its IMF-inspired economiс program! 2) No annexation of Crimea by Russia! 3) Federalisation of the Ukraine so that the Regions of the Ukraine have right for self-determination to choose between (a) euro-integration (b) free-trade zone with the Custom Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus (c) independence of both - EU and CU.
Because of his public statements Gafurov is suspected to be one of the organisers of a secret channel to transfer refugees - mainly members of the Communist party of the Ukraine and other leftist organisations, who were persecuted and tortured at Maidan and some other regions in the Ukraine to Russia.
Views on aesthetics
Since 2012 Gafurov being dissatisfied with current level of Russian opera criticism has started as an opera critic in some of Russian prominent media like "Literaturnaya gazeta", Pravda.ru, "Svobodnaya pressa", etc. due to sharp rise of level of Russian opera since the beginning of the millennium. He is concentrated around social aspects of theatrical side of opera and underestimates the musical side. Gafurov's critics on cinema are of little importance. Gafurov akhwardely believes that opera should be the working class art.
Gafurov is generally believed to be the prototype of the main hero of Darya Mitina sets of humoristic short stories - "The highest level of relations" and "Talks in bed". He is depicted as a simple-minded, naive henpecked husband who pretends to be ultra male chauvinistic and always get in funny situations because of it.
Gafurov is a frontman at Russian Internet-TV weekly shows at www.pravda.ru : "Point of view: Orient", "Point of view: Economy", "Point of view: Behind the Ocean".
Some texts by Gafurov
- The Philosophy of Equity Research. M.2013 - in Russian (Философия фондового анализа)
- The Intergovernmental Commissions and the Modernization of the Russian economy M.2011 (Межправительственные комиссии и модернизация российской экономики)
- The WTO mechanisms and non-discriminatory operations of Russian oil and gas companies in the European Energy markets" M. 2014 - in Russian (Механизмы ВТО и недискриминационный режим работы российских нефтегазовых компаний на европейском рынке)
- "The initiative "Partnership for Modernization" and the Russian national interests" M. 2013 - in Russian (Инициатива "Партнерство для модернизации")
- «Разве терпимо, когда мятежом возмущаются Гракхи?»
- Gafurov's position on Syrian crisis (in English)
- Money matters. Reduction of foreign exchange reserves in the world. "Svobodnaya pressa" M.2015 - in Russian
- Attraction of risky generosity. On strange things in the international finances. "Svobodnaya pressa" M. 2016 - in Russian
- Economic policy in the crisis in 2010 M. "Russikiy obozrevatel" M. 2010 - in Russian
- Gafurov's articles in "Pravda"