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Aaron Schatz
American football writer

Aaron Schatz

The basics

Quick Facts

Intro
American football writer
Work field
Gender
Male
Education
Brown University
The details (from wikipedia)

Biography

Football Outsiders (FO) is a website started in July 2003 which focuses on advanced statistical analysis of the NFL. The site is run by a staff of regular writers, who produce a series of weekly columns using both the site's in-house statistics and their personal analyses of NFL games.

In 2005 and 2006, the site partnered with FOXSports.com to cross-publish many of the Outsiders' regular features, including power rankings based on a "weighted" version of the DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) statistic. In 2007, Football Outsiders content appeared on FOXSports.com (in a reduced capacity) along with AOL Sports and ESPN.com. Since 2008, the site has partnered exclusively with ESPN and provides mostly ESPN Insider content. In 2009, Football Outsiders began analyzing college football using similar statistical principles.

History

Football Outsiders was launched in August 2003 by Aaron Schatz, with two regular columns, one of which used an early version of the proprietary DVOA statistic. The original purpose of the site was to disprove a statement by Boston Globe reporter Ron Borges that the 2002 New England Patriots failed to make the postseason because they could not establish the run. Over the course of time, the site added more writers, and hosted Gregg Easterbrook for part of 2003.

Between 2004 and 2005, the site introduced new statistics such as Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement (DPAR, later Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, DYAR) and Adjusted Line Yards (ALY). In 2005, the site began to cross-publish many of its columns on FOXsports.com.In 2005, Football Outsiders also took over publication of Pro Football Prospectus, a book giving a preview of the upcoming NFL season.In 2009, the annual was renamed Football Outsiders Almanac.

Currently, the site has incorporated the 1986-2016 NFL seasons into their statistics.

Key Metrics

Football Outsiders has devised a series of proprietary formulas to calculate different advanced metrics.

DVOA

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average. According to Football Outsiders, DVOA "breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent. ... Football has one objective -- to get to the end zone -- and two ways to achieve that, by gaining yards and getting first downs. These two goals need to be balanced to determine a player's value or a team's performance."

There is a separate DVOA measurement for special teams, which "compare[s] each kick or punt to the league average for based on the point value of field position at the position of each kick, catch, and return."

DYAR

DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) calculates each player's cumulative value above or below a "replacement-level" alternative. DYAR differs from DVOA in calculating a player's total value through the course of a year, and not on a play-for-play rate. States Football Outsiders, "DVOA, by virtue of being a percentage or rate statistic, doesn’t take into account the cumulative value of having a player producing at a league-median level over the course of an above-average number of plays. By definition, a median level of performance is better than that provided by half of the league and the ability to maintain that level of performance while carrying a heavy work load is very valuable indeed."

Adjusted Line Yards

Adjusted Line Yards (ALY) "differentiate[s] between the contribution of the running back and the contribution of the offensive line." ALY attempts to "separate the effect that the running back has on a particular play from the effect of the offensive line (and other offensive blockers) and the effect of the defense. ... Yardage ends up falling into roughly the following combinations: Losses, 0-4 yards, 5-10 yards, and 11+ yards. In general, the offensive line is 20% more responsible for lost yardage than it is for yardage gained up to four yards, but 50% less responsible for yardage gained from 5-10 yards, and not responsible for yardage past that. Thus, the creation of Adjusted Line Yards."

Drive Stats

Drive Stats calculate a team's average success rate on a possession-by-possession basis: "[E]ach team's total number of drives as well as average yards per drive, points per drive, touchdowns per drive, punts per drive, and turnovers per drive, interceptions per drive, and fumbles lost per drive. LOS/Drive represents average starting field position (line of scrimmage) per drive from the offensive point of view. Drive stats are given for offense and defense, with NET representing simply offense minus defense."

Pythagorean projection

Another metric Football Outsiders uses is Pythagorean projection, which estimates wins in a season by a formula originally conceived by baseball analyst Bill James, that takes the square of team points, and divides it by the sum of the squares of team points scored and allowed.

The 2011 edition of Football Outsiders Almanac states, "From 1988 through 2004, 11 of 16 Super Bowls were won by the team that led the NFL in Pythagorean wins, while only seven were won by the team with the most actual victories. Super Bowl champions that led the league in Pythagorean wins but not actual wins include the 2004 Patriots, 2000 Ravens, 1999 Rams and 1997 Broncos."

Although Football Outsiders Almanac acknowledges that the formula had been less-successful in picking Super Bowl participants from 2005-2008, it reasserted itself in 2009 and 2010.

Furthermore, "[t]he Pythagorean projection is also still a valuable predictor of year-to-year improvement. Teams that win a minimum of one full game more than their Pythagorean projection tend to regress the following year; teams that win a minimum of one full game less than their Pythagoerean projection tend to improve the following year, particularly if they were at or above .500 despite their underachieving. For example, the 2008 New Orleans Saints went 8-8 despite 9.5 Pythagorean wins, hinting at the improvement that came with the next year's championship season."

DVOA results

Each year, Football Outsiders calculates the best and worst teams, per play, with the DVOA metric (see above). Below is a list of the highest- and lowest-rated teams in the league in each year from 1985-2019.

= Team Won Super Bowl
= Team Awarded First Overall Draft Pick in following year's draft
SeasonBest DVOA ratingDVOAWorst DVOA ratingDVOANotes
2019Baltimore Ravens41.5%Miami Dolphins-36.7%
2018Kansas City Chiefs33.0%Arizona Cardinals-40.4%
2017New Orleans Saints30.7%Cleveland Browns-27.2%
2016New England Patriots25.3%New York Jets-32.4%
2015Seattle Seahawks38.0%San Francisco 49ers-27.4%
2014Seattle Seahawks31.9%Jacksonville Jaguars-29.5%
2013Seattle Seahawks40.0%Jacksonville Jaguars-38.2%
2012Seattle Seahawks38.7%Kansas City Chiefs-40.1%
2011Green Bay Packers27.0%St. Louis Rams-35.4%
2010New England Patriots44.6%Arizona Cardinals-37.1%
2009Baltimore Ravens29.1%Detroit Lions-51.6%
2008Philadelphia Eagles31.8%Detroit Lions-48.4%
2007New England Patriots52.9%St. Louis Rams-35.5%
2006San Diego Chargers29.5%Oakland Raiders-32.9%
2005Indianapolis Colts32.1%San Francisco 49ers-55.5%
2004Pittsburgh Steelers37.6%San Francisco 49ers-41.8%
2003Kansas City Chiefs30.3%Arizona Cardinals-42.0%
2002Tampa Bay Buccaneers31.6%Houston Texans-41.9%
2001Philadelphia Eagles27.3%Minnesota Vikings-27.4%
2000Tennessee Titans33.3%Cleveland Browns-40.2%
1999St. Louis Rams34.0%New Orleans Saints-40.3%
1998Denver Broncos32.6%Philadelphia Eagles-34.6%
1997Green Bay Packers29.7%San Diego Chargers-30.2%
1996Green Bay Packers42.0%New York Jets-30.9%
1995San Francisco 49ers40.0%Arizona Cardinals-27.9%
1994Dallas Cowboys32.9%Houston Oilers-32.3%
1993Dallas Cowboys24.9%Indianapolis Colts-37.2%
1992Dallas Cowboys35.1%New England Patriots-40.1%
1991Washington Redskins56.9%Indianapolis Colts-47.7%
1990New York Giants30.8%New England Patriots-38.0%
1989San Francisco 49ers36.0%Dallas Cowboys-36.2%
1988Cincinnati Bengals27.5%Detroit Lions-29.5%
1987San Francisco 49ers47.2%Atlanta Falcons-45.9%
1986Chicago Bears30.4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers-43.8%
1985Chicago Bears52.5%Houston Oilers-40.2%

Pro Football Prospectus and Football Outsiders Almanac

From 2005 through 2008, Football Outsiders published the Pro Football Prospectus book each year before the football season began.It included an essay for each team analyzing the previous season, evaluating off-season moves, and projecting future performance.

In 2009, Football Outsiders did not publish a Pro Football Prospectus volume, but instead produced the self-published Football Outsiders Almanac 2009. The reason for this is explained in the book:

So why the name change, and why aren’t we in bookstores?

For those who don’t know, our first four books were published through an agreement with Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, the company that owns Baseball Prospectus (as well as the expansion projects Basketball Prospectus and Puck Prospectus). It was PEV that had the publishing contract (first with Workman, then Plume). This year, for various reasons, Plume decided they no longer wanted to publish books related to other sports besides baseball. Other publishers were interested in doing our book, but by the time Plume made their decision, it was too late to get on the publication schedule for 2009.

Management

Editor-in-Chief: Aaron Schatz
Assistant Editors: Vincent Verhei, Scott Spratt

Books

  • Pro Football Forecast 2004 (ISBN 1574886584)
  • Pro Football Prospectus 2005 (ISBN 0761140190)
  • Pro Football Prospectus 2006 (ISBN 0761142177)
  • Pro Football Prospectus 2007 (ISBN 0452288479)
  • Pro Football Prospectus 2008 (ISBN 0452289734)
  • Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 (ISBN 1448648459)
  • Football Outsiders Almanac 2010 (ISBN 1453671188)
  • Football Outsiders Almanac 2011 (ISBN 978-1-4662-4613-3)
  • Football Outsiders Almanac 2012 (ISBN 978-1-4782-0152-6)

General references

  • Bob Glauber, "Glauber's NFL Hot Reads," Newsday.com (September 1, 2009).
  • "Football Outsider: Football Statistics from Outside the Box—An Interview with Aaron Schatz," SportsTechNow.com (January 25, 2008).
  • Will Leitch, "A Conversation with Football Outsiders EIC Aaron Schatz," Deadspin, August 26, 2009.
  • "Q.&A. with Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders," in The Fifth Down, New York Times N.F.L. Blog, The New York Times, September 21, 2009.

Citations

The contents of this page are sourced from Wikipedia article. The contents are available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQ
Who is Aaron Schatz?
Aaron Schatz is an American author, editor-in-chief, and creator of Football Outsiders, a website focused on advanced statistical analysis of the National Football League (NFL). He has been a pioneer in the field of football analytics and is considered one of the leading voices in football statistics.
What is Football Outsiders?
Football Outsiders is a website that focuses on advanced statistical analysis of the NFL. It was founded by Aaron Schatz in 2003 and quickly gained popularity among football enthusiasts. The website uses innovative metrics and formulas to evaluate players, teams, and game strategies, providing in-depth insights into the game.
Why is Aaron Schatz considered a pioneer in football analytics?
Aaron Schatz is considered a pioneer in football analytics because he was one of the first to apply advanced statistical analysis to the NFL. Through his work with Football Outsiders, Schatz introduced new metrics and concepts that revolutionized the way fans, coaches, and media evaluate the game. His contributions have helped shape the field of football analytics and brought a data-driven approach to understanding the sport.
What are some of Aaron Schatz's notable works?
Aaron Schatz has authored several books on football, including "Football Outsiders Almanac" and "Pro Football Prospectus." These books provide comprehensive statistical analysis, insights, and predictions for the upcoming NFL season. Additionally, Schatz has contributed articles to various publications and is a frequent guest on sports radio programs.
How can I connect with Aaron Schatz or learn more about his work?
To connect with Aaron Schatz or learn more about his work, you can visit the Football Outsiders website (www.footballoutsiders.com), where he serves as the editor-in-chief. The website features his articles, analysis, and podcasts. Additionally, you can follow Aaron Schatz on Twitter (@FO_ASchatz) to stay updated on his latest insights and interact with him.
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